Wird alles noch viel schlimmer? In den unendlichen Weiten des Web habe ich nämlich ein berkenswertes Interview mit Richard Russsell gefunden, dem Herausgeber des „Dow Theory Letter“, der seit 1957(!) veröffentlicht wird.

Und Russell (inzwischen 84 Jahre alt) sagt etwas ganz erstaunliches: Die Börsen befinden sich immer noch in einem übergeordneten Bullen-Markt, der jetzt schon seit 1982 anhält. Auch die Korrektur zur Jahrtausendwende (wie auch die jetzige) sei kein echter Bärenmarkt gewesen. Darum: „Somewhere ahead we’re finally going to enter a true primary bear market, maybe one of the greatest and most tragic in history.“

Aber lesen Sie selbst:

Question: Richard, please answer this, at the January 2008 lows, stock values never came close to what we expect at a primary bear market bottom. What do you make of that?

Answer: I’ve thought about this situation, just as I thought about this same situation at the October 2002 lows. My answer is the following – neither October 2002 nor January 2008 represented a major or primary bear market bottom. Both, I believe, were important secondary or cyclical correction-bottoms within a continuing primary bull market. I see no other explanation. Remember, one of the most important Dow Theory concepts is that bear markets end with stocks at great values. Stocks were not great values in the classic sense at October 2002 or January 2008.

Question: Wait, Richard, whoa – are you telling me that we’ve been in a primary bull market ever since the early 1980s, and that we’re still in that same primary bull market?

Answer: That’s correct. That’s what I’m saying. Somewhere ahead we’re finally going to enter a true primary bear market, maybe one of the greatest and most tragic in history. That future bear market will end with something we haven’t seen since the 1980 to 1982 period, and I’m talking about great values in stocks. And when I say great values I’m talking about blue-chip stocks selling in single-digit price/earnings ratios while at the same time providing dividend yields of 6-7-8%, the kind of yields we last saw at the lows of the early 1980s.

Question: What do you think could bring stocks down to those levels? What might the market be discounting?

Answer: Here I’m only guessing, but I think it could be the dollar losing its reserve currency status. If that happens, the US would no longer possess the incredible and singular privilege of printing the same money in which it is indebted. In other words, the dollar would no longer be accepted by the rest of the world as the reserve currency. And the US could no longer print itself into solvency.